Retired Blog
Retired Blog
Notes on calm software, building Retired Today, and using simple tools to live a simpler life.
How to tell a normal drawdown from a broken edge — the math of why bad months are mandatory, and four diagnostic questions you can run before changing a thing about your strategy.
A $400 month means nothing without knowing how much was risked. Logging in R lets you compare trades across position sizes and instruments — the metric that compounds cleanly.
Drop the annual-return claim. Run 1,000 Monte-Carlo paths through a 60-trade run at 80% wins, 2% risk. Watch the equity curves spread.
High win rates aren't free. The math of what a strategy mathematically must trade away to win 4 out of 5 trades, and why a single tail event can erase months of small gains.
Every strategy report shows three performance numbers. Only one of them tells you whether you'll make money. The math of what each measures and which two can lie.
Stop placement decides your win rate before any analysis does. The math of why tight stops and wide stops are the same trade in opposite costumes.