Retired Blog
Retired Blog
Notes on calm software, building Retired Today, and using simple tools to live a simpler life.
After three losses in a row, your next trade is exactly as likely to lose as the last one. The math, the psychology, and the trader behaviours it creates.
A win rate from 20 trades isn't a number — it's a guess with a wide error bar. The math of how many trades you actually need before the percentage means anything.
Why the same chart shows you exactly what you want to see — and a practical framework for forcing the disconfirming view before you take the trade.
The research-backed recovery window after a trading loss — why "I feel fine" is unreliable for about an hour, and how long to wait before the next trade.
The five cognitive biases — loss aversion, anchoring, confirmation, recency, overconfidence — that cause most trading losses, with a self-assessment.