Retired Blog
Retired Blog
Notes on calm software, building Retired Today, and using simple tools to live a simpler life.
FOMO trades start with a chart catching your eye, not a setup confirming. Three behavioral fingerprints to spot in your log before you click again.
Tag every trade with too many labels and you get a junk drawer. Tag with too few and patterns hide. The four-tag system that actually produces post-mortems.
After three losses in a row, your next trade is exactly as likely to lose as the last one. The math, the psychology, and the trader behaviours it creates.
How to tell a normal drawdown from a broken edge — the math of why bad months are mandatory, and four diagnostic questions you can run before changing a thing about your strategy.
A $400 month means nothing without knowing how much was risked. Logging in R lets you compare trades across position sizes and instruments — the metric that compounds cleanly.
MiCA is now in full effect across all 27 EU member states. What it actually requires of exchanges and stablecoins, and how member-state tax treatment of crypto still varies widely.
How the Australian Tax Office treats crypto — capital gains tax, the 50% discount for assets held over 12 months, the personal-use asset exception, and what data exchanges share with the ATO.
Japan taxes crypto gains as miscellaneous income, with progressive national and local rates topping out near 55%. How the framework works and why it shapes Japanese crypto trading.
Turkey has one of the world's highest crypto adoption rates because the lira loses value faster than most fiats. How the hedge works, what's legal, and where BTCTurk + Bitlo fit in.
India taxes crypto gains at a flat 30% and 1% TDS on every transaction above ₹10,000. How the rules work and why the framework reshaped the Indian crypto market.
Brazilian residents can sell up to R$35,000 of crypto per month tax-free. How the exemption works, what counts, and how to calculate gains in BRL when you owe.
Why Russian BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP trading shifted from centralized exchanges to P2P, OTC, and mining-as-payment rails after 2022 — and how RUB pricing fragmented across venues.
How South Korea's capital controls produce a sustained 1-4% (sometimes 20%+) BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP price gap above international rates — and what it means for traders inside and outside Korea.
What a market order does to the order book, why slippage exists, and a scroll-through animation showing a market buy eating through asks one level at a time.
Drop the annual-return claim. Run 1,000 Monte-Carlo paths through a 60-trade run at 80% wins, 2% risk. Watch the equity curves spread.
How HMRC treats ETH for capital gains and income tax — the £3,000 annual allowance, staking rewards, crypto-to-crypto disposals, and what the data-sharing agreements with exchanges actually cover.
High win rates aren't free. The math of what a strategy mathematically must trade away to win 4 out of 5 trades, and why a single tail event can erase months of small gains.
Every strategy report shows three performance numbers. Only one of them tells you whether you'll make money. The math of what each measures and which two can lie.
Mean reversion and trend following can have the same long-run expectancy with completely different win rates. The structural reason and what each style costs in the wrong market.
What every part of a candlestick tells you — open, high, low, close, body, upper wick, lower wick — plus the four base shapes and a live BTC candle to read.
A live BTC price snapshot reduced to one value, one direction, and one range. The case for low-resolution price displays when you don't need to trade.
Stop placement decides your win rate before any analysis does. The math of why tight stops and wide stops are the same trade in opposite costumes.
A practical guide to buying BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP in Indonesia — Bappebti-licensed exchanges, the 0.21% tax, and bank rails that actually work.
A win rate from 20 trades isn't a number — it's a guess with a wide error bar. The math of how many trades you actually need before the percentage means anything.
How much edge a trading strategy actually needs to clear costs. Real Phemex fees, realistic slippage, and the math that decides which strategies survive the round trip.
Five questions that reliably catch a FOMO entry before the order goes in. The neuroscience, the warning signs, and a quick yes-no flow that scores your trade.
A walk through the layers between a crypto balance and the fiat number your tracker shows. Stablecoin depegs, fiat reference rates, and the small deviations that compound.
Why the same chart shows you exactly what you want to see — and a practical framework for forcing the disconfirming view before you take the trade.
A live histogram of where BTC actually spent its time over the last 12 hours — round numbers, recent extremes, and the levels price kept returning to.
The research-backed recovery window after a trading loss — why "I feel fine" is unreliable for about an hour, and how long to wait before the next trade.
The five cognitive biases — loss aversion, anchoring, confirmation, recency, overconfidence — that cause most trading losses, with a self-assessment.
Why BTC and ETH track each other most of the time, when they diverge, and a live dual-line chart of the last 12 hours rebased to zero so you can read it at a glance.
What the London trading session is, why 3am–9am ET moves crypto more than any other window, and a live chart of today's BTC path in that window.